Ozempic Was The Warm-Up. RETA Is The Killer

From https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ozempic-was-warm-reta-killer

The phase 2 drug everybody already wants

Every biohacker, bodybuilder, founder, model and longevity nerd I know is suddenly talking about the same thing: RETA. Not Ozempic. Not Wegovy. RETA.

The drug is not even fully here yet and it is already circulating through black markets, anti-aging clinics and Telegram groups like contraband from the future.

The results people describe are borderline absurd: effortless fat loss, zero food noise, less alcohol craving, insane body recomposition.

And after looking at the latest Lilly data, one thing is becoming increasingly clear:

GLP-1s may end up being far more important than the internet wellness crowd understands — and far more disruptive than markets currently price in.

New fat pill king

Lilly’s retatrutide (“RETA”) is increasingly being viewed as the next evolutionary leap in obesity drugs.

Unlike earlier GLP-1s, RETA is a triple agonist – targeting GLP-1, GIP and glucagon pathways simultaneously.

Translation: even greater weight loss, potentially higher energy expenditure, and what increasingly looks like “medical body recomposition.”

In Lilly’s latest data, patients on the highest dose achieved more than 30% weight loss – results that start entering the territory previously associated only with bariatric surgery.

Source: Lily

Lilly

Lilly share price is riding the Reta wave pushing towards new ATHs and also the magic one trillion dollars. Congrats Indiana community & religion development (Lilly Foundation now close to $100bn in AUM and has the targeted aim of boosting exactly those two things).

Obesity

So much TAM. So much more obesity still to eradicate.

Dr Danish: “In a few years, obesity will be considered rare again”

Source: Epic

More more more

The truly crazy part? RETA may not even be the end game. Pharma is now moving into the era of triple, quadruple and potentially quintuple agonists – drugs targeting multiple metabolic pathways simultaneously.

The obesity war has effectively become an AI arms race for human metabolism.

Source: GLP1 Digest

Cancer too

And this is where the story gets truly weird. GLP-1s increasingly look less like “weight loss drugs” and more like broad metabolic master switches.

GLP-1s so far: Kills food noise. Cuts heart disease risk. Fixes sleep apnea. Protects kidneys. Reduces addiction.

Now: potentially slows cancer progression by up to 50%. Cleveland Clinic is presenting data at the largest cancer conference in the world showing they may cut cancer progression by 38-50% across multiple tumor types. They tracked 10,000+ cancer patients and found GLP-1 users had dramatically lower tumor progression across breast, lung, colon and liver cancer. The data is still early here but the effects outside of weight loss are starting to add up and pretty amazing.

Massive shift

We may be underestimating how large this shift really is. For decades, developed economies quietly adapted themselves around overconsumption: more calories, more snacks, more alcohol, larger portions, constant cravings.

GLP-1s do not merely change weight. They appear to change desire itself.

The habits stick

If people permanently eat less, snack less, order less takeout and drink less alcohol, entire industries suddenly have a problem.

“This may give restaurant owners food for thought. It shows the percentage of people dining at restaurants dropping sharply from 55% to 31% after they began taking the medication, while those visiting fast-food outlets and coffee shops falls from two-thirds to 37%. And while more than half of them used to order takeout and drink alcohol, only about a third do once they take the medication. And most significantly, our survey shows that, in most cases, GLP-1 users are continuing to eat and drink differently even after they stop taking it. Once formed, new habits broadly stick.” (Deutsche Bank)

Source: Deutsche Bank

Restaurants under attack

Here is the cumulative net trading & performance of the US restaurant sector. Puking.

Source: JPM PI

Positioning

Long/short ratio is at multi-year low. 1st percentile.

Source: JPM PI

More GLP casualties

Also GLP victim – processed food.

Another GLP casualty 

Alcohol is the new tobacco trade -Cuervo now off 70% over the last five years. What’s wild is that it isn’t even levered – lost 70% of its enterprise value since 2021. Second chart is of Diageo. Perfect downtrend and a nice $50bn in market cap gone.

Healthcare

Healthcare vs. SPY looks tempting.

Source: JC Parets

RETA is not just a drug. It is a direct attack on the economics of overconsumption